England meet Messi and Argentina with a World Cup final at stake
For the first time in Lionel Messi's long career, he lines up against England, and he does so with a World Cup final on the line. England face Argentina in Atlanta on Wednesday, the second semi-final of the 2026 tournament, with the winners booked in against Spain at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, according to Sky Sports.
The stakes could hardly be starker. Spain saw off France 2-0 in Dallas on Tuesday to reach the final, per Sky Sports, so whoever comes through at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium knows exactly what waits. Kick-off is 3pm ET.
Thomas Tuchel's England arrive on a steady run rather than a spectacular one. They came from behind to beat DR Congo 2-1, edged Mexico 3-2 courtesy of a Jude Bellingham double and a Harry Kane penalty, then saw off Norway 2-1 after extra time in the quarter-final, according to Sky Sports' account of their route. It has not always been pretty. It has, however, been enough.
Argentina present a different problem altogether. The reigning champions have won every match at this World Cup, per Al Jazeera, and they still have Messi. At 39, he leads the tournament's scoring charts on eight goals and has stretched his record for the most World Cup goals to 21, according to Al Jazeera. The idea of facing him in a semi-final, with everything at stake, is the sort of thing that keeps managers up at night.
Much of England's plan will come down to the middle of the pitch. Declan Rice and Kobbie Mainoo are likely to be handed the job of choking the supply to Messi, Al Jazeera reports, on the reasonable theory that if you starve him of the ball you take away half his menace. Easier drawn on a tactics board than done on the night.
Going the other way, England will lean on Bellingham. The midfielder has saved his best for the knockouts, and his goals against Mexico dragged England through when the tie threatened to slip away. Kane, meanwhile, did his heavy lifting earlier: most of his goals came in the group stage, per Al Jazeera, and he sits on six for the tournament, level with Bellingham and two behind Messi.
There is a Golden Boot subplot running quietly underneath all this. Messi is on eight, Kane and Bellingham on six apiece, Al Jazeera notes, so the semi-final doubles as a private race between the three of them. It is unlikely to be uppermost in anyone's mind at kick-off, but a hat-trick from any of them would settle more than one argument.
The models cannot separate the sides. Opta's supercomputer gives England a 39.1 percent chance of winning inside 90 minutes and Argentina 31.6 percent, with a 29.3 percent probability of extra time, according to Al Jazeera. In other words, bring a cushion for the sofa.
History adds its own weight. England and Argentina have produced some of the World Cup's most loaded meetings, and Alexis Mac Allister has spoken of Argentina wanting to channel the spirit of Diego Maradona, per TNT Sports. England will be keen to write a rather different chapter.
Whatever happens, one of these sides will fall a single step short. For England, a first men's World Cup final since 1966 is 90 minutes, or perhaps 120, away. For Argentina and Messi, it is a chance to defend the crown. Something has to give in Atlanta.
No comments yet