Win the midfield, win the World Cup. It is rarely that simple, but on Sunday at MetLife Stadium it might come close. This is the defending champions against the European champions, Argentina chasing back-to-back titles and Spain a first crown since 2010. Spain arrive in East Rutherford as the side that keeps the ball, and the man who keeps it for them is Rodri.
Spain's metronome
Everything Spain do at these finals runs through Rodri. He drops deep, takes the ball off his back four, and sets the tempo, the conductor a possession side is built around. When he gets to dictate, La Roja hum.
This is how Spain won Euro 2024 and how they have moved through these finals: patient, positional, happy to pass a tired side into submission. De la Fuente has Lamine Yamal, 19, to finish the job on the right, but the engine sits deeper. Cut the supply from Rodri and much of the threat dries up.
The reigning Ballon d'Or winner has run this tournament after recovering from the serious knee injury that cost him most of the 2024-25 season. Luis de la Fuente's side reached the final by seeing off France 2-0, and they did it the way they have done everything here, keeping the ball until the openings came. Rodri sat at the base and set the rhythm. France chased shadows.
Argentina's plan to press Rodri
Lionel Scaloni's midfield knows exactly where the final will be fought. Leandro Paredes, Enzo Fernandez and Alexis Mac Allister will be charged with getting close to Rodri, denying him the half-second of space he turns into control. Press him early, crowd the passing lanes, and Spain's metronome stops ticking. Scaloni built his 2022 win on exactly this kind of controlled aggression.
Argentina have the runners to try it. Enzo and Mac Allister covered huge ground on the way to beating England 2-1 in the semi-final, and Messi, at 39 and playing what is widely expected to be his last World Cup, has increasingly dropped deep to help build. The defending champions will not try to out-pass Spain. They will look to make the middle a scrap, then hurt La Roja on the break.
Where the final will be won
Any read on where this final swings starts in that central battle. Opta's supercomputer makes Spain narrow favourites, roughly 59% to Argentina's 41%, and much of that gap is a verdict on who controls possession. If Rodri sets the tempo unchallenged, Spain should win the possession war and, most likely, the match. If Argentina's trio get to him, the whole thing tilts.
The subplots are stacked high. Messi can become the first man to lead back-to-back World Cup winners since Pele, and the first captain to defend the trophy since Cafu in 2002. Yamal, 19, would be the youngest champion of the modern era. Underneath it all runs the Golden Boot race, with Kylian Mbappe out in front on 10 goals and Messi second on 8. Two more tonight would pull Messi level, and the assists tiebreaker would tip the award his way.
Kick-off is 3pm ET, 8pm in the UK, 9pm across central Europe. Fox has it in the United States, with BBC One and ITV1 both live in Britain. Watch the middle third. That is where this one gets settled.
Sources
- Opta Analyst
- BBC Sport
- ESPN
- Cover photo: Bex Walton / CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
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