July 1 is the day the NBA calendar stops pretending to be quiet. Free agency is live, and the league is already sorting into three buckets: teams with cap space hunting stars, teams over the cap hunting trades, and teams praying their restricted free agents do not get poison-pilled into oblivion.
The names driving the market
LeBron James has already dominated the conversation with exit talk out of Los Angeles. Kawhi Leonard's health premium keeps Western contenders on speed dial. Role players with shooting and defense, from Luke Kennard types to switchable wings, are moving faster than the headline stars because playoff coaches need plug-ins now, not in August.
Cap space vs sign-and-trade chess
The richest deals rarely happen on day one. Agents wait for the first domino, then price the second player off the first contract. Sign-and-trades re-enter the chat whenever a star wants a specific destination and the incumbent team wants assets back. That mechanism is why "unsigned" does not mean "available to everyone."
What to watch this week
Track which teams commit long money early vs who sit out waiting for a trade market to open. The franchises that misread that timing pay twice: in salary and in lost rotation pieces.
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