Two quarter-finals, one long day. First to Miami, where England face Norway at 21:00 GMT, then on to Kansas City for the holders Argentina against Switzerland at 01:00 GMT. Both ties look one way on paper. Both carry an obvious way to be turned on their head.
Norway v England: everything runs through Haaland
England arrive as favourites, and the numbers back it. Opta's supercomputer, across 25,000 simulations, makes this the tightest quarter-final of the round yet still tilts England's way: a 50.4 per cent regulation win against Norway's 25.1, and a 62.3 per cent chance of reaching the semi-final. The bookmakers agree, making England clear favourites and pricing Norway as long outsiders, per ESPN's odds page.
The case for England is depth. Harry Kane has six goals and an assist, Jude Bellingham four, including a brace in the 3-2 win at the Estadio Azteca that England saw out with ten men for more than half the match. Thomas Tuchel's in-game management draws praise, and both Declan Rice (a stomach bug) and Marc Guéhi (hamstring) are back in full training, per Sports Mole.
The worry is at the back. Jarell Quansah serves a two-match FIFA ban after his red card on Mexico's Jesús Gallardo, Jordan Henderson is out for the tournament with a broken arm, and Reece James, only lately back from a hamstring problem, is expected to start on the bench in Miami's heat. Norway, by contrast, report a clean bill of health, and Ståle Solbakken is tipped to name an unchanged side.
And then there is Haaland. Seven goals in four games, both of Norway's in the 2-1 win over Brazil that repeated their famous result against the same opponents at the 1998 World Cup. This is Norway's first quarter-final in their history, and their first World Cup since that summer. Solbakken has told BBC Sport that England are favourites; Haaland rated his side's title hopes "really low, still" and agreed the pressure sits with England. Even so, the analysts are blunt: Norway's route to an upset runs almost entirely through their number nine.
England lead the head-to-head seven wins to two, with three draws, though the pair have never met at a major tournament, their last meeting a 1-0 England win in Oslo in 2012. Our prediction: England to edge it and advance, in line with pundit forecasts of 2-1 or 3-1, but with real scope for one Haaland moment to make a nervy night of it. No scoreline is a certainty here.
Argentina v Switzerland: Messi's streak against the meanest defence
The second tie looks even more lopsided, and the market knows it. DraftKings reported 85 per cent of bets and 91 per cent of the money on Argentina 24 hours out, per CBS Sports, with the holders heavy favourites to advance. Opta gives them a 57.7 per cent win chance in 90 minutes and 70.5 to progress.
Lionel Messi is the reason. At 39 he leads the Golden Boot race with eight goals in five games and has become the first player to score in six straight World Cup knockout ties. His side came from 2-0 down with 11 minutes left to beat Egypt 3-2, Enzo Fernández heading the winner in the 92nd minute. Scaloni's only real call is whether Julián Álvarez or Lautaro Martínez starts alongside him.
Switzerland offer the tournament's most stubborn resistance. Murat Yakin's side have not trailed at any point all campaign, qualifiers included, and reached the last eight for the first time since 1954 by holding Colombia and winning on penalties. Granit Xhaka leads the tournament for line-breaking passes into the final third. The blow is the loss of Johan Manzambi, 20, ruled out with a knee injury. "It hurts us enormously," Yakin said. "It was a real shock."
Two things keep this interesting. Argentina have conceded from 56 per cent of the shots on target they have faced in the knockouts, per Opta, and referee João Pinheiro's appointment has drawn scrutiny in Argentina after a waved-away handball call for Bayern in a Champions League semi-final. Our prediction: Argentina to control it and go through, backed by odds, form and a perfect record against the Swiss, who have never won any of their seven meetings. CBS Sports' Martin Green likes over 2.5 goals, and given both defences have leaked, that feels the sensible lean rather than a Swiss upset.
Kick-off in Miami is first. What Haaland does there may set the tone for a long night.
Sources
- ESPN: World Cup quarter-final preview, predictions and odds
- Sky Sports: quarter-finals team-by-team preview
- Al Jazeera: Norway v England quarter-final preview
- The Analyst (Opta): quarter-final supercomputer predictions
- The Analyst (Opta): Argentina v Switzerland preview
- ESPN: Jarell Quansah suspended two matches after Mexico red card
- ESPN: Haaland on Norway's chances and the pressure on England
- Sports Mole: Norway v England team news and predicted XIs
- Sky Sports: Argentina 3-2 Egypt match report
- beIN Sports: Yakin confirms Manzambi unavailable
- beIN Sports: referee João Pinheiro appointment scrutiny
- CBS Sports: Argentina v Switzerland odds and expert pick
- KSHB: Switzerland's 72-year quarter-final wait
- Yahoo Sports: Argentina v Switzerland head-to-head
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