The defending champions against a side that has not reached the last eight since 1954. When Argentina meet Switzerland at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Saturday, the gap in pedigree could hardly be wider, and yet the detail hints at a tie with more in it than the price suggests.
Argentina arrive unbeaten and untroubled by the group stage, having taken a perfect nine points from Group J (3-0 against Algeria, 2-0 against Austria, 3-1 against Jordan). The knockouts have been messier. They edged Cabo Verde 3-2 in Miami, then trailed Egypt 2-0 with 11 minutes of normal time left in Atlanta before a stunning late surge: Cristian Romero headed in from a Messi cross on 79 minutes, Messi struck himself on 84, and Enzo Fernandez nodded the winner in the 92nd. No extra time required.
Switzerland have taken the scenic, stubborn route. Breel Embolo and Dan Ndoye saw off Algeria 2-0 in Vancouver, before a goalless draw with Colombia was settled 4-3 on penalties. Murat Yakin's side are the only team left in the field yet to trail at any point all campaign, qualifiers included, per Opta. This is their first World Cup quarter-final in 72 years, and their first back-to-back knockout wins at a finals.
Messi against the Swiss wall
Everything Argentina do runs through a 39-year-old. Lionel Messi leads the Golden Boot race with eight goals in five games and has become the first player to score in six consecutive World Cup knockout matches, per Opta. Lionel Scaloni's only real dilemma is who partners him: Julian Alvarez or Lautaro Martinez, with a fully fit 26-man squad and no injury worries to cloud the call.
The Swiss plan will be to sit deep, stay compact and dare Argentina to break them down, the very block that frustrated Colombia for 120 minutes. Argentina's scoring streak now stands at 14 straight games, so something has to give. Patience against a low block, and Messi's knack of finding a pass no one else sees, is the first battle of the afternoon.
The Manzambi-shaped hole
Switzerland's tournament has a breakout face, and now a fresh problem. Johan Manzambi, the 20-year-old Freiburg forward, is confirmed out with the knee injury that also kept him out against Colombia. He is the youngest player to reach five goal involvements at a World Cup since 1966, per Opta, and Yakin did not hide the blow. "Johan Manzambi's injury hurts us enormously," the coach said. "It was a real shock. He can't play."
Michel Aebischer and Luca Jaquez have been training individually too, per ESPN, thinning Yakin's options further. Without Manzambi's running, Switzerland lean harder on Embolo, Ndoye and Ruben Vargas to carry the counter, and on a defence that has yet to be breached from open play in the knockouts.
Xhaka, the midfield and Argentina's soft underbelly
If Switzerland are to spring the upset, it starts with Granit Xhaka. The captain leads the entire tournament in line-breaking passes into the final third, with 50, per Opta. He and left-back Ricardo Rodriguez are the only survivors from the side that lost 1-0 to Argentina after extra time in 2014, Angel Di Maria settling that tie in the 118th minute. Switzerland have never beaten Argentina in seven attempts.
The encouragement for Yakin lies in Argentina's knockout defending. They have conceded from 56% of the shots on target they have faced across the last two rounds, five goals from nine, one of the leakiest returns of any side still standing, per Opta. Egypt exposed it. Colombia's forwards could not find a way through. The question is whether a depleted Swiss attack can.
What the models and the money say
The market is not on the fence. DraftKings reported 85% of bets and 91% of the money on Argentina 24 hours out, per CBS Sports. Bookmakers price Argentina around -145 for the 90 minutes, Switzerland out at +450 to +500, the draw around +250. Opta's model gives Argentina a 57.7% win chance in normal time and 70.5% to advance overall.
The nuance is in the goals. CBS Sports' Martin Green, 19-7 on his World Cup calls this tournament, leans towards over 2.5, reasoning that Argentina's leaky knockout defence should hand a Swiss front line chances even without Manzambi. Our read, in line with the model rather than against it: a tight, open Argentina win is more likely than a stroll, though this is a forecast, not a foregone conclusion.
One more subplot. Referee Joao Pinheiro's appointment has raised eyebrows in the Argentina camp, per beIN Sports, after he waved away a handball shout in a recent Champions League semi-final. He has already taken charge of Switzerland's 4-1 win over Bosnia at this tournament.
Kick-off in Kansas City looms. Argentina are the heavy favourites, and history is entirely on their side. But Switzerland have not trailed once, and that streak will have to break before this one is settled.
Sources
- ESPN match page (live status)
- FOX Sports match page (live status)
- ESPN preview: TV, lineups, injuries
- Sky Sports: Argentina 3-2 Egypt report
- The Analyst (Opta) preview and win probabilities
- beIN Sports: Yakin confirms Manzambi unavailable
- beIN Sports: referee Joao Pinheiro controversy
- CBS Sports odds and expert pick
- KSHB: Switzerland's 72-year quarterfinal wait
- Al Jazeera: Scaloni on Messi's form
- FIFA.com: Switzerland 2-0 Algeria match report
- Yahoo Sports: Argentina-Switzerland head-to-head
No comments yet